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With the deepening of NBA playoffs in the 2022-2023 season, NBA this season has officially entered the window of championship competition. For those teams that have finished their journey this season, the team reinforcement work in the summer of 2023 has quietly started, the 76ers in Philadelphia were one of them.

The end of the competition on the court means the beginning of the game outside the court. After the 76-person discount to the eastern semi-final, the future of their core defender James Harden has also received extensive attention from fans. According to comprehensive reports from all parties, bearded will jump out of the contract and enter the free market. At present, he is entangled between the 76 teams and the Rockets, and has not made a decision on his next stop.

Next, let’s analyze the choices in front of Harden this summer.

First of all, let’s take a look at Harden’s demands. Bearded will be 34 years old in August this year, so this year is almost his last chance to pursue a long-term big contract. In this case, he will undoubtedly seize the last tail of his peak period and seek a long-term top-salary contract. According to the labor agreement, he is qualified to sign a contract for up to 5 years (staying in 76 people) or 4 years (going to other teams) this summer.

However, due to the restriction of the 38-year-old rule, Harden is almost certain to sign in a four-year contract this year.

Let’s first introduce the content of the 38-year-old rule. In NBA, the 38-year-old rule is a clause that prevents teams from bypassing work cap. Its specific content is as follows: if the total length of a player’s contract is X(X ≤ 5) years, the start time of the Y season in the contract is after his 38th birthday, then this contract will be regarded as a contract over 38 years old. For this kind of contract, because the player may retire within the contract period, his salary from season Y to season X should be allocated to Season 1 to season Y-1, occupying the salary space of the team’s first (Y-1) season.

For example, a 35-year-old player signed a four-year contract of 20 million dollars, because the fourth year contract will start after his 38th birthday, his contract is a contract over 38 years old, and the contract amount in the fourth year will be shared among the contract amount in the first three years, that is, the player will get an average annual salary of 6.66 million dollars in the first three years, while the contract amount in the last year is 0. The player’s annual salary, which is included in the team’s total salary in the first three years, will also be $6.66 million instead of $5 million.

Back to Harden’s situation, Yogueta signed a 5-year contract with 76 people this year, then the 38-year-old rule was triggered due to the start time of the last season in the contract (October 2027) after his 38th birthday (August 26, 2027), his 5-year contract will be regarded as a contract over 38 years old, the salary of the last season in the contract should be allocated to the first four seasons, occupying the salary space of the team in the first four seasons. This is something 76 people cannot afford.

Therefore, whether staying in 76 people or going to other teams, Harden can only sign in a 4-year contract.

Finally, let’s look at the 4-year contract of 76 people and the 4-year contract of other teams.

Under the restriction of the 38-year-old rule, 76 people can give Harden a contract with a starting salary of 46.9 million and an annual salary increase of 3.75 million for 4 years. The specific circumstances of the contract are as follows:

2023-24 season: 46.9 million

2020-25 season: 50.652 million

2020-26 season: 54.404 million

2026-27 season: 58.156 million

The total amount of four years is 0.21 billion dollars.

For teams other than 76 people, they can give Harden a contract with a starting salary of 46.9 million and an annual salary increase of 2.345 million for 4 years at most. The details of the contract are as follows:

2023-24 season: 46.9 million

2020-25 season: 49.245 million

2020-26 season: 51.59 million

2026-27 season: 53.935 million

The total number of four years is 0.2016 billion.

It can be seen that the difference between the two contracts is only 8.4 million dollars, and 76 people have no advantage in the competition. In this case, the possibility of Harden leaving the team is greatly increased!

Well, the above is all the analysis of Harden’s free market signing this summer under the 38-year-old rule. I hope everyone will have a clearer judgment on the future of beard after reading it.

Details and cases of NBA labor agreement